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My guess: the only one that has been rated in that bucket in the last year was Caruana, post-Saint Louis. At that point, he suffered (and is still going through) a big decline with several bad blunders.



This was the leading hypothesis on r/chess. I'm pretty sure it's right Naka didn't hit this rating in 2014 as far as I know.


The only other candidate would be Carlsen when he dipped to the high 2850s.




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