People shop on monthly payments. Say that gas is $5/gallon in three years (and I'm pretty sure that's conservative). For 1500 miles a month at 30 mpg, that's $250 a month in gas. Subtract that plus maintenance from your payment and you're getting into econobox territory. I think $35,000 will be a pretty big deal.
but nissan is already promising a 200 mile car for half the model 3 price... your argument is valid for prius today, not for model 3 whenever it's launched.