So what's the secret sauce that cadence is not allowed to sell to personas non gratas? The article just says EDA tools but that's so broad. Is KiCAD export restricted?
For EDA, gate-all-around technologies used in 2nm processes are banned from export by ITAR. This applies to device electrical modeling as well as physical design layout rules. You won’t find these GAA in KiCAD or OpenROAD.
I think for this case though it was specifically because Cadence sold a commercial product to a banned entity, instead of anything technology related.
Is this actually because of legal requirements, or because of reality?
Nobody with access to a bleeding-edge node is using vastly inferior FOSS tools that can't actually work with a brand new fab PDK (which was produced specifically for Synopsys or Cadence tools.)
If you read the article, you will see that the technology is specifically semiconductor design tools required for developing high performance computing that the PRC would use for nuclear weapons development. Can you do that with KiCAD? No.
The parent's question still seems applicable. Is this basically down to a judge to decide the line at which a certain technology is too advanced to export? Would open sourcing an EDA tool be illegal if it was sufficiently capable?
Licensing as "open source" wouldn't be illegal, but the act of exporting would be. I've certainly seen libre software downloads that have click-throughs where you attest you're not in certain prohibited countries, IP blocks (eg Github does this site-wide AFAIK), etc. No idea if this will continue to be "enough" under this new fascist regime that doesn't care much for institutions like the rule of law. Probably fine up until it isn't, at which point ceasing and desisting would probably be enough unless you're deemed "woke" or some other kind of unperson.
(I'm not a member of any guilds. And I guess the downvote is for the political incorrectness. Plus ça change)