> LFP at the cell level is below $100/kWh, 5000 cycles means $0.02/kWh out of the cell (maximum since after 5000 cycles battery is still at 80% capacity so the real price is even lower).
The cells are by far not the only cost. You also have land, installation, operations, taxes, insurance, etc. Most of these costs also have to be paid upfront even though you won't actually hit 5000 cycles for more than a decade, so then you have to add time value of money.
It's like saying "it's really cheap to own a home, just get lumber in bulk for like $100/unit and it'll last for decades."
> Also about near $0 or below $0 prices, they exist only because we don't currently signal those prices to consumers. Anyone with electric car (parked 95% of the time) or batteries at home or business would charge them at $0.01-0.05/kWh no question asked and price would never go to zero or negative.
That's what happens for the first few hours of peak generation, but then the batteries are all fully charged and you're still generating in excess of demand because it's still a week with clear skies in the summertime.
Also, a lot of reason for the zero or negative prices is that you have more generation at that time than there is transmission capacity in the grid. You can't sell it to someone because you don't have the capacity to deliver it, and expanding the grid for something that only happens a fraction of the time (and is only relevant when the price is low) isn't cost effective.
And actual zero isn't really the point anyway. If the wholesale price is $0.01/kWh instead of actual zero on the day when solar is at peak generation, it's still selling below cost on the days when it has the most to sell, and only getting a fraction of the premium during supply shortfalls because the shortfalls are caused by solar being unable to supply more power then.
The cells are by far not the only cost. You also have land, installation, operations, taxes, insurance, etc. Most of these costs also have to be paid upfront even though you won't actually hit 5000 cycles for more than a decade, so then you have to add time value of money.
It's like saying "it's really cheap to own a home, just get lumber in bulk for like $100/unit and it'll last for decades."
> Also about near $0 or below $0 prices, they exist only because we don't currently signal those prices to consumers. Anyone with electric car (parked 95% of the time) or batteries at home or business would charge them at $0.01-0.05/kWh no question asked and price would never go to zero or negative.
That's what happens for the first few hours of peak generation, but then the batteries are all fully charged and you're still generating in excess of demand because it's still a week with clear skies in the summertime.
Also, a lot of reason for the zero or negative prices is that you have more generation at that time than there is transmission capacity in the grid. You can't sell it to someone because you don't have the capacity to deliver it, and expanding the grid for something that only happens a fraction of the time (and is only relevant when the price is low) isn't cost effective.
And actual zero isn't really the point anyway. If the wholesale price is $0.01/kWh instead of actual zero on the day when solar is at peak generation, it's still selling below cost on the days when it has the most to sell, and only getting a fraction of the premium during supply shortfalls because the shortfalls are caused by solar being unable to supply more power then.