> these were the same people that were reporting A+ on junk bonds back then, weren't they?
Fun fact: those AAA securities paid out. We have obvious endogeneity issues with the bailouts. But the evidence is strong that even absent the bailouts, those senior tranches would pay out.
The problem was that most AAA securities are both highly solvent and high liquid. But these proved solvent but illiquid. That caused issues when their owners tried to dump them. But Moody’s rated solvency, not liquidity.
It was honestly a shocking finding at the time. But loss ratios (2.3%) were just within historic norms for what someone buying something rated AAA would expect [1], and to my knowledge, the losses presented as restructurings not outright defaults as is commonly imagined in popular retelling of the financial crisis.
Wow this is truly amazing. Unfortunately I suspect this will never become common knowledge, the conventional narrative just "feels" so correct. Thanks for the link!
Fun fact: those AAA securities paid out. We have obvious endogeneity issues with the bailouts. But the evidence is strong that even absent the bailouts, those senior tranches would pay out.
The problem was that most AAA securities are both highly solvent and high liquid. But these proved solvent but illiquid. That caused issues when their owners tried to dump them. But Moody’s rated solvency, not liquidity.