>the U.S. national debt doesn’t matter they way it does for other nations. No matter how frustrated the rest of the world gets, American debt will still be a safe bet even if issued seemingly endlessly.
Ah, yes, the old "this time is different" argument. That one worked so well for the British Pound-Sterling nearly a century ago.
The thesis begs the question of by assuming a static economic environment. The point is that the tenuousness of the stability of the dollar, makes people want to hold it less, which makes it more likely for people to find other reserves. It would certainly take some time to unwind, but not that much time.
Unless you can name another currency with even a moderate likelihood of stability owing to the issuers ability to underwrite it with something like, say, having the Navy that keeps shipping lanes unimpeded across the entire planet… the thesis stands.
I have no idea why you think military might will force people to buy debt.
Other nations have armies. Other nations have nuclear arsenals. The denomination of the debt has little to do with whether or not shipping lanes stay open, and a lot more to do with the nation being able to demonstrate that they can return a greater value of capital to the lender.
You don’t see a connection between military power and stability?
You really don’t see how a single country guaranteeing freedom of navigation worldwide for the 80% of global trade that happens by sea might have something to do with other countries having a vested interest in the stability of that currency? Or how that same Navy being the one that sits where the resources that drive the global economy flow like the Persian Gulf might mean it’s not comparable to… the nations that can’t do that (see: any)
Ah, yes, the old "this time is different" argument. That one worked so well for the British Pound-Sterling nearly a century ago.
The thesis begs the question of by assuming a static economic environment. The point is that the tenuousness of the stability of the dollar, makes people want to hold it less, which makes it more likely for people to find other reserves. It would certainly take some time to unwind, but not that much time.