But yes, and no. I’d agree in the sense that the null hypothesis is crucial, possible the main divider between optimists and pessimists. But I’ll still hold firm that the baseline should be predicting that transformer based AI differs from humans in ability since everything from neural architecture, training, and inference works differently. But most importantly, existing AI vary dramatically in ability across domains, where AI exceeds human ability in some and fail miserably in others.
Another way to interpret the advancement of AI is viewing it as a mirror directed at our neurophysiology. Clearly, lots of things we thought were different, like pattern matching in audio- or visual spaces, are more similar than we thought. Other things, like novel discoveries and reasoning, appear to require different processes altogether (or otherwise, we’d see similar strength in those, given that training data is full of them).
I think the difference it that computers tend to be pretty good at thing we can do autonomically- ride a bike, drive a car in non-novel/dangerous sitations and things that are advanced versions of unreasoned speech - regurgitations/reformulations of things it can gather from a large corpus and cast into it’s neural net.
They fail at things requiring novel reasoning not already extant in its corpus, a sense of self, or an actual ability to continuously learn from experience, though those things can be programmed in manually as secondary, shallow characteristics.
New expression to me, thanks.
But yes, and no. I’d agree in the sense that the null hypothesis is crucial, possible the main divider between optimists and pessimists. But I’ll still hold firm that the baseline should be predicting that transformer based AI differs from humans in ability since everything from neural architecture, training, and inference works differently. But most importantly, existing AI vary dramatically in ability across domains, where AI exceeds human ability in some and fail miserably in others.
Another way to interpret the advancement of AI is viewing it as a mirror directed at our neurophysiology. Clearly, lots of things we thought were different, like pattern matching in audio- or visual spaces, are more similar than we thought. Other things, like novel discoveries and reasoning, appear to require different processes altogether (or otherwise, we’d see similar strength in those, given that training data is full of them).