I think it is pretty simple: people tried it a few times a few months ago in a limited setting, formed an opinion based on those limited experiences and cannot imagine a world where they are wrong.
That might sound snarky, but it probably works out for people in 99% of cases. AI and LLMs are advancing at a pace that is so different from any other technology that people aren't yet trained to re-evaluate their assumptions at the high rate necessary to form accurate new opinions. There are too many tools coming (and going, to be fair).
HN (and certain parts of other social media) is a bubble of early adopters. We're on the front lines seeing the war in realtime and shaking our heads at what's being reported in the papers back home.
Yeah, I try to stay away from reaching for these sorts of explanations, because it feels uncharitable. I saw a lot of very smart people repost the quoted post! They're not the kind who "cannot imagine a world where they are wrong."
But at the same time, the pace of advancement is very fast, and so not having recently re-evaluated things is significantly more likely while also being more charitable, I think.
My language is inflammatory for certain, but I believe it is true. I don't think most minds are capable of having to reevaluate their opinions as quickly as AI is demanding. There is some evidence that stress is strongly correlated to uncertainty. AI is complicated, the tools are complicated, the trade-off are complicated. So that leaves a few options: live in uncertainty/stress, expend the energy to reevaluate or choose to believe in certainty based on past experience.
If someone is embracing uncertainty or expending the time/energy/money to reevaluate then they don't post such confidently wrong ideas on social media.
That might sound snarky, but it probably works out for people in 99% of cases. AI and LLMs are advancing at a pace that is so different from any other technology that people aren't yet trained to re-evaluate their assumptions at the high rate necessary to form accurate new opinions. There are too many tools coming (and going, to be fair).
HN (and certain parts of other social media) is a bubble of early adopters. We're on the front lines seeing the war in realtime and shaking our heads at what's being reported in the papers back home.