Now it is difficult time for negotiations due to Russia being in a favourable position and being able to demand more. While Trump needs to fulfill his promise to "end the war in the first day", Russia doesn't have to hurry although it wants to end the war too (after all, it was supposed to last just several weeks).
A good time for negotiations was in 2022, but it is lost.
> I doubt any peace negotiated will last decades
I think Russia doesn't want the second war like this because it was supposed to last several weeks but ended up lasting several years.
I think you are spot on. In 2022 Russia was pushed back from several areas and debating whether it would commit to a wider war. I think there were some opportunities for negotiation in early 2023 even to get favorable terms.
But yeah in 2024-2025 the tide has turned significantly toward Russia so it will be hard to get favorable terms. The challenge is that 2026 and on isn't likely to be different. Ukrainian Intelligence Head Budanov warned that Ukraine could collapse in 2025 if peace isn't negotiated.
A good time for negotiations was in 2022, but it is lost.
> I doubt any peace negotiated will last decades
I think Russia doesn't want the second war like this because it was supposed to last several weeks but ended up lasting several years.