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Yeah but without a hardline how would you decide what to publish?



Not publishing results with p >= 0.05 is the reason p-values aren't that useful. This is how you get the replication crisis in psychology.

The p-value cutoff of 0.05 just means "an effect this large, or larger, should happen by chance 1 time out of 20". So if 19 failed experiments don't publish and the 1 successful one does, all you've got are spurious results. But you have no way to know that, because you don't see the 19 failed experiments.

This is the unresolved methodological problem in empirical science that deal with weak effects.


> "an effect this large, or larger, should happen by chance 1 time out of 20"

More like "an effect this large, or larger, should happen by chance 1 time out of 20 in the hypothetical universe where we already know that the true size of the effect is zero".

Part of the problem of p-values is that most people can't even parse what it means (not saying it's your case). P-values are never a statement about probabilities in the real world, but always a statement about probabilities in a hypothetical world where we all effects are zero.

"Effect sizes", on the other hand, are more directly meaningful and more likely to be correctly interpreted by people on general, particularly if they have the relevant domain knowledge.

(Otherwise, I 100% agree with the rest of your comment.)


Publishing only significant results is a terrible idea in the first place. Publishing should be based on how interesting the design of the experiment was, not how interesting the result was.


P-value doesn't measure interestingness. If p>0.05 there was no result at all.


Both of those statements are false. Everything has a result. And the p-value is very literally a quantified measure of how interesting a result was. That's the only thing it purports to measure.

"Woman gives birth to fish" is interesting because it has a p-value of zero: under the null hypothesis ("no supernatural effects"), a woman can never give birth to a fish.


I ate cheese yesterday and a celebrity died today: P >> 0.05. There is no result and you can't say anything about whether my cheese eating causes or prevents celebrity deaths. You confuse hypothesis testing with P-values.


The result is "a celebrity died today". This result is uninteresting because, according to you, celebrities die much more often than one per twenty days.

I suggest reading your comments before you post them.


p-value doesn't measure interestingness directly of course, but I think people generally find nonsignificant results uninteresting because they think the result is not difficult to explain by the definitionally-uninteresting "null hypothesis".

My point was basically that the reputation / carrer / etc of the experimenter should be mostly independent of the study results. Otherwise you get bad incentives. Obviously we have limited ability to do this in practice, but at least we could fix the way journals decide what to publish.


Research is an institution. Just qualify the uncertainty and describe your further work to investigate.


In THEORY yes, but in practice, there are not a ton of journals I think that will actually publish well done research that does not come to some interesting conclusion and find some p<.05. So....


Plenty of journals do, just mostly in fields that don't emphasize P-values. Chemistry and materials science tend to focus on the raw data in the form of having the instrument output included, and an interpretation in the results section.

The peaks in your spectra, the calculation results, or the microscopy image either support your findings or they don't, so P-values don't get as much milage. I can't remember the last time I saw a P-value in one of those papers.

This does create a problem similar to publishing null result P-values, however: if a reaction or method doesn't work out, journals don't want it because it's not exciting. So much money is likely being wasted independently duplicating failed reactions over and over because it just never gets published.


That is what this article is about, changing the expectations of researchers and journals to be willing to publish and read research without p values.


I see. Thanks for clarifying.


Preregistered studies don't have any p values before they're accepted.


You shouldn't publish based on p < 0.05, but on orthogonal data you gathered on the instances that showed p < 0.05.




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