Yes, if there's anything I've learned from the crypto markets lately it's that a few years of (apparent but vigorously unaudited) success is proof that it is very safe and won't come apart precipitously.
not sure whether this was sarcastic, but if it really is, then you shall just extend your time horizon. Those who bought bitcoin at the worst moment of 2014 are still now at a comfortable ~20x (and roughly ~2x on the spx)
How does that help whether to buy or sell in 2023? You could say the exact same paragraph last year, but someone would’ve bought and lost 2/3 now. That means it could happen again.
Hey now. The Bitcoin price is heavily dependent on financially naive people putting dollars in. If you're just going to run around countering hype with facts and reasonableness, how are they going to get the bubble to reinflate?
Oh wait, is the game we're playing Pick an Arbitrary Time Period That Lets Me Be Right? How fun, let me try.
In which case I am happy to extend my time horizon. We could go back 15 years, where all of this stuff was worthless. We could go back 20 years where the online currencies Beenz and Flooz had just collapsed into worthlessness. We could go back 150 years to the wildcat banking area, the last time we let chumps just make up magic money, which was such a disaster that it was foundational to the modern regulatory regime. Or how about we go back 300 years and look at the South Seas Bubble and Isaac Netwon's time reforming British currency so it was less of an exploitable clusterfuck.
You're right, extending my time horizon really does help put cryptocurrency in perspective.
