People are overwhelmingly in fixed rate debt this time, and lending standards tightened meaningfully after 2008. I wouldn't bet on that being a catalyst.
[edit] We're talking like 2-4% of originations have been ARMs from 2009 onward, vs. a peak of 35% in 2004-2007.
The issue is that people will be stuck for 5-10 years in their current house. There will be limited new construction and eventually remodeling will stop.
Watch the numbers out of Home Depot and Lowes.
Will variable rates mortgages and wealthy tech workers end up paying for the covid lockdowns and government excesses?