Some might return to on-premise data center, but most will not.
It's really just like the utilities these days, 98% people will not dig their own well and install some sewage system and buy a generator, but big companies can still opt to have them on-premise installed, even though some of those are just backup systems.
You generally can not go from city water/sewage to on-prem for legal reasons. However, many are going on-prem with solar. I am going almost completely off-grid for cost and SLA requirements.
What's interesting is people seem really excited about installing rooftop solar, but I see fewer companies building collectors in places with cheap land and ample sun. That tells me part of the selling point of rooftop solar is it feels good, and the economics might not actually work.
> part of the selling point of rooftop solar is it feels good
As someone who's been building an off-grid solar system this is largely the case. I've spent thousands on panels and batteries, my electricity bill is only a few hundred a month but we have frequent outages during storm season. It's definitely more of a feel good and control thing. If I consider the cost of running the electricity to our remote location, I'd probably barely break even in 10 years if I'm lucky.
If you spend US$6000 on panels and batteries, your electricity bill is US$300/month, and the outages and power lines cost you nothing, then your payback time for the off-grid solar system would seem to be 20 months, under two years, not 10 years. The outages and power lines would seem to shorten the payback time further, not lengthen it. Without disparaging the feel-good control thing, which I think is reasonable and important, I feel like I must be misunderstanding something about your explanation.
The economics favors distributed storage rather than generation.
I worked in a building during rolling blackouts in California. The Tesla Powerwall on the building was "screaming" (ultrasonic harmonics from piezo components) 24/7. The security guy actually came to get me to ask if the thing was going to explode.
Clearly, the building owner was load shifting and making quite a bit of money from it.
> The economics favors distributed storage rather than generation.
They shouldn't, though. If powerwalls are that great, it should be more cost effective to install giant banks of them in cheap warehouses outside major metros since you'll have economies of scale on installation and maintenance. Utilities are sorta getting into this game, but it's more common at the individual level, despite being more expensive.
> If powerwalls are that great, it should be more cost effective to install giant banks of them in cheap warehouses outside major metros since you'll have economies of scale on installation and maintenance.
This works only if the electrical grid has the ability to consume back your stored power. Most electrical grids in the US would have problems doing that.
For example, UCSD has their own generating facility; however, SDG&E was sufficiently backward that UCSD was unwilling to go through the grief necessary to put energy back into the grid. Therefore, UCSD only does load shifting or disconnects the campus from the grid during rolling blackouts.
Because of the poor energy grid transport, storage batteries make the most sense when you can consume the stored energy locally to minimize your grid consumption during high energy prices--ie. you have a high-rise office with lots of air conditioning or a manufacturing facility.
It's really just like the utilities these days, 98% people will not dig their own well and install some sewage system and buy a generator, but big companies can still opt to have them on-premise installed, even though some of those are just backup systems.
there is no return for the cloud for 98% of us.