Well you need to consider what treasury yields represent. They are the market response from thousands of participants with hundreds of billions of dollars of skin in the game to the question “What will you pay today for a dollar in 3 months? What will you pay today for a dollar in 10 years?”
That market consensus captures a lot of information and boils it down to its essence.
I think you've hit the nail on the head. Also you've inadvertently proven that a pillar of objective US economic policy is the subjective experience of wealthy people.
Politicians appease the rich to keep the economy afloat. That's how it's always worked throughout history, that's how it works now, but I would argue that it must not be allowed to continue working that way in the future. Unless we want to keep waiting for a handout from the rich under trickle-down economics.
The solution to all of this of course is to examine the opposite choices that were available to us at any point in the last 40+ years. Some low-hanging fruit is stuff like Who Killed the Electric Car, or when Bill Clinton caved to Newt Gingrich and dismantled social programs and let the The Gramm–Leach–Bliley Act happen which created/exacerbated these 10 years boom-bust cycles, or when Ronald Reagan took Jimmy Carter's solar panels off the white house and set renewable energy in the US back 30+ years, or when we kept Cold War military spending levels after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, just on and on and on and on and on. An infinitude of unforced errors which ran up a bill that Gen X and younger now has to pay.
That was a bit of a rant sorry, but I almost can't believe we're talking about yield curves when a modest 3 bedroom home costs half a million dollars and working people are making $15/hr if they're lucky. If I were a young person today listening to an older person gaslight me that nobody wants to work, I mean, I don't see how I could do anything but laugh at them. Just outright laugh at that level of cognitive dissonance.
there's a 1k sqft house in my neighborhood renting for $6,500/month, I live in Dallas TX. That is the clearest indication of economic insanity i have ever seen.
Isn't this very similar to the betting market for sports for example? The betting markets are knee jerk themselves, who know how their mindset in general changing over time, they may be becoming more short sighted and so react on yesterday's news. IMO, Just because there is money involved doesn't make it accurate.
Mob wisdom and informed people betting with their money are two different things. Not saying the matter is 100% accurate, but better than what is normally called mob wisdom.
That market consensus captures a lot of information and boils it down to its essence.