I've done exactly what you're saying I should not do and it worked out very well.
My point is that these hard and fast rules don't leave any room for nuance. Consider, as I mentioned in another comment, you don't have to exercise 100% of your options. Exercise whatever makes you comfortable. Maybe that's one under the number that would push you into AMT.
If zero is your comfort level, then so be it. But get to that conclusion by doing a little thought and evaluation, not applying an arbitrary rule.
Preface: humans are really bad at assessing risk. Also, you can't help but be biased in the decision process. Most people want a chance at the golden ticket. Especially after all that hard work we put in! We deserve a payout! What was I going to do with the $10,000 anyway, really? It won't break me.
The people that can make a reasoned and well considered, as impartial as possible judgement about it don't need to be told to do so. In fact, a statement that one should never buy the options can and mostly will (rightly so) just be ignored by such people.
But, judging by the number of people that have NO CLUE about how it works, need only the tiniest thing to grab onto to make the wrong decision. There is zero need to recommend "well consider your risk". If you have to ask, then my advice is always as I gave it: not to skip it as a rule, but if you re-read you'll notice all I said was, the odds are not in your favor and you "should" just leave the options behind. I think there is a subtle but important difference. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, if so, sorry.
You're actually arguing survivor bias as being some kind of counter argument! You are in the pretty small minority, I do hope you understand that.
Tell me, how do you feel about COVID vaccine? Shouldn't we just be allowed to make up our own mind about it? If masks and vaccines work, well the scientific set can wear masks and vaccine up. The anti-vax crowd can do as they please and die. We don't need the government to TELL US what to do, do we? No one gets out alive anyway, amirite?
What is your recommendation on COVID? Evaluate the risk and decide for yourself? Surely you prefer Florida's or Texas' take on COVID to California's then?
I now come full circle: humans are really bad at assessing risk.
My point is that these hard and fast rules don't leave any room for nuance. Consider, as I mentioned in another comment, you don't have to exercise 100% of your options. Exercise whatever makes you comfortable. Maybe that's one under the number that would push you into AMT.
If zero is your comfort level, then so be it. But get to that conclusion by doing a little thought and evaluation, not applying an arbitrary rule.