Forensic Architecture's investigation released about 8 months ago used blast modeling to estimate that "as little as half of the 2,700 tons" exploded. The FBI's estimate cuts that estimate by about half.
There was speculation at the time (including some by myself) as to what could account for the reduced yield relative to the total initial shipment quantity.
https://forensic-architecture.org/investigation/beirut-port-...
Discussed on HN at the time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25149177
There was speculation at the time (including some by myself) as to what could account for the reduced yield relative to the total initial shipment quantity.