Most people with two cars actually drive both cars every weekday. If one of them is gasoline, then you're replacing half of their gasoline consumption instead of all of it.
What those people will not do is buy two electric cars plus a gasoline car for their 1% needs. Many people also would rather not hassle with rentals on a regular basis.
But in fairness, it'd be great progress just to get to the point where most two-car families choose electric for one of them, and by the time that happens, batteries will probably be a lot better anyway.
Yeah, I think EV adoption will stall out for a long time at around 50%. Families will have one EV and one gas vehicle. That covers all their needs; two EVs won't. And the gas-burner will get used just as much, since both parents need a vehicle.
The idea that people will rent vehicles for those longer trips is a bit untethered from reality.
What those people will not do is buy two electric cars plus a gasoline car for their 1% needs. Many people also would rather not hassle with rentals on a regular basis.
But in fairness, it'd be great progress just to get to the point where most two-car families choose electric for one of them, and by the time that happens, batteries will probably be a lot better anyway.