> Even with imperfect screening, if we are able to prevent 90% of disease transmission, then the virus’s reproductive number, or R0, will drop below one and the pandemic will quickly fade. There is no risk of reintroduction from the outside because any new outbreaks will quickly be caught and contained. If used consistently, there will be no second wave, ever.
This is dangerously wrong.
If you reduce R0 below 1, you may stop community spread. You will not eradicate it however, unless this is done globally for a prolonged period of time with no error. This cannot be done with the proposed solution.
We can (probably) stop this from hurting the vulnerable population while we find a long term solution like an inoculation, but we cannot just skip that and call everything good after some period of low / no new cases in a region.
Also remember this is literally a virus that emerged from animals in the first place (zoonotic transmission).
There will always be animal reservoirs of this.
For that reason, and those you outlined, we could achieve the flawless techno-totalitarian state that so many well-intentioned citizens are practically begging for, and we would still be screwed.
The only stable long-term solution is widespread exposure; ie how humanity has dealt with pretty much every other global pandemic we’ve been encountered with.
Thus why those who are trying to demonize the concept of “herd immunity” and make it a dirty word are playing a very dangerous game.
This is dangerously wrong.
If you reduce R0 below 1, you may stop community spread. You will not eradicate it however, unless this is done globally for a prolonged period of time with no error. This cannot be done with the proposed solution.
We can (probably) stop this from hurting the vulnerable population while we find a long term solution like an inoculation, but we cannot just skip that and call everything good after some period of low / no new cases in a region.