> The arithmetic on that is ~1 million early deaths in the US.
Sorry that's baseless histeria. We can easily think through how healthy people go back to normal (exponentially lower fatality rate than elderly/sick), while vulnerable take more precaution, how then getting to 60% of population gives us herd immunity which grinds R0 to a halt. Then a vaccine arrives in 18 months. Not to mention heat/humidity/summer is being shown to slow the disease from recent studies.
New York (state) deaths per infection assuming ~10% overall spread:
10000/(0.1 * (20 million)) = 0.005
Arithmetic to scale that to ~60% of the US:
0.005 * 0.6 * 330 million = 990000
Of course that is hugely sensitive to the assumptions about the overall infection rate in New York and the immunity factor, but like I said, the arithmetic on what you said leads to ~1 million early deaths.
No, if elderly/vulnerable continue precaution, more like range(.001 - .0001) x .6 x 330 million = 20k - 200k deaths
Add in supposed summer slow down and before we get a vaccine the numbers could be 10x less
There are 12k cases in Singapore and 12 deaths because they almost exclusively tested foreign worker dormitories, healthy working people (and the 12 are all elderly).
Cite something -- anything -- legitimate that points long-term organ damage in young, otherwise healthy people. Newspaper anecdotes don't count.
All evidence so far is that a small fraction of people sick enough to be in the ICU end up with some sort of non-lung organ involvement. The vast majority (>99.98%) of young (<50 years), healthy people don't end up in the hospital at all, let alone the ICU.
Right. So a day after you make your comment implying lots of young people are experiencing long-term organ damage, the WaPo discusses an as-yet-unpublished paper discussing a small number of stroke victims who may or may not have been influenced by this virus.
If this is the best you can do, you're grasping at straws.
Sorry that's baseless histeria. We can easily think through how healthy people go back to normal (exponentially lower fatality rate than elderly/sick), while vulnerable take more precaution, how then getting to 60% of population gives us herd immunity which grinds R0 to a halt. Then a vaccine arrives in 18 months. Not to mention heat/humidity/summer is being shown to slow the disease from recent studies.