This means herd immunity kicks in at 82% of the population.
Antibody testing appears to be showing infection rates are a lot higher than previously thought as well.
Both of those things together mean that 1) "there's no way to stop it" 2) "it might not be as dangerous as we thought".
But who knows, right? There's a ton of science that needs to be done to find out what's really going on. Large-scale, accurate, randomized testing will hopefully fill out the data picture.
Because the US has an awful medical system where access to care comes through your job, it seems to me that more people will die (from non-virus causes) than from the economic damage than from the virus itself.
> The latest on the COVID-19 R0 is a median of 5.7
Pet peeve of mine: R0 is not a property of a virus; it's a property of a virus in a certain environment. 5.7 is the estimate for covid-19 in Wuhan, a dense environment. It is nowhere close to that in the vast majority of the United States -- estimates are <3 in say Seattle or Norcal.
> Antibody testing appears to be showing infection rates are a lot higher than previously thought as well.
> 2) "it might not be as dangerous as we thought".
Contact tracing is enough to keep r < 1. If we keep this thing at under 20 cases/million/day for the next few years until there's a vaccine, I think we can go about our lives.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0282_article
This means herd immunity kicks in at 82% of the population.
Antibody testing appears to be showing infection rates are a lot higher than previously thought as well.
Both of those things together mean that 1) "there's no way to stop it" 2) "it might not be as dangerous as we thought".
But who knows, right? There's a ton of science that needs to be done to find out what's really going on. Large-scale, accurate, randomized testing will hopefully fill out the data picture.
Because the US has an awful medical system where access to care comes through your job, it seems to me that more people will die (from non-virus causes) than from the economic damage than from the virus itself.
I guess we'll know more in a few years.