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CFR is a terrible metric - you should be using IFR. CFR is of course going to be much higher than the IFR, probably orders of magnitude higher.

IFR data hasn't been available until recently because you need A) randomized sampling and B) antibody tests, which have only just been rolled out.

The most up-to-date IFR data suggests that "0.5%" is actually an astoundingly high overestimate for any reasonable metric of "number of people who die from this", and that's before adjusting for the fact that the people who die were usually going to die soon anyway.




> astoundingly high overestimate for any reasonable metric

12k deaths in NYC gives a pretty hard lower bound on IFR of 0.14%.

The IFR will end up higher than 0.5% if incidence in city is any lower than 27%, which seems very reasonably likely.




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