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> They ought to have retired the plane last year

This would bankrupt the company.

(Not necessarily uncalled for. But not something it will do on its own.)

> If the public doesn't trust your brand

The public has shown one preference, above all else, when it comes to flying: pricing. The 737 MAX will be renamed, re-certified and nobody but an obsessive minority will avoid flying on it.

(This is why, btw, we need strong airline regulators. Market pressure is ceteris paribus insufficient.)




> This would bankrupt the company.

Is that even possible? From what I understand, it's a strategic company for the United States, so they have to keep it alive no matter what (I recall reading that it's actually a law) - or at least its military branch.


It can certainly be kept alive through bankruptcy. Boeing isn't going anywhere. The board's share value might, tho.


It is that possible that it can be bankrupted in the sense that stockholders get wiped out even if the US government bails it out in the sense of keeping it alive operationally.


Do you really want to re-regulate the airlines? Fares will at least double.


> Do you really want to re-regulate the airlines?

No, pardon me, I meant planes and their maintenance. Airlines setting fares and competing for slots is fine.


> I meant planes and their maintenance

Planes and their maintenance are already strictly regulated in the US. Note that the two crashes were not of planes flown by US carriers. The first crash (Lion Air) had maintenance irregularities that contributed to it.

MCAS, however, is not a maintenance failure but a design failure. "More regulation" is not really a good description of what is needed to prevent future design failures like that. What is needed is regulation that can't be outsourced to the companies being regulated, as the FAA was doing.


Yes. Regulations are worth the downsides when it's a matter of life and death. Plus it's already highly regulated, so being a little stricter is not going to mean noticeably higher fares.

The problem here is the regulatory body basically punted and let the company regulate themselves. Like that was going to work...


Strong disagree. There is always an economic tradeoff. Hypothetically going from 0.00001% chance of death to 0.000001% chance of death is not worth my ticket price going from $500 to $2000.

Also why I drive to work every day instead of some safer form of transportation.


The price going from $500 to $2000 for just enforcing reasonable regulations and oversight on Boeing is a pretty blatant strawman.

I strongly disagree with your strong disagree.


It’s not a straw man. It’s actual facts. This isn’t a hypothetical.

Airlines were heavily regulated. We know how it worked.


It's a straw man. Reasonable regulations are not going to raise prices by 400%. That's absurd.

Nobody is saying regulate them to death. But maybe, just maybe, don't let the company themselves certify their own aircraft when it comes to matters of safety, required training, etc.


> Regulations are worth the downsides when it's a matter of life and death.

I am in disagreement specifically with this absolute quote.

Regulations may or may not be worth the downsides, even when they save lives. The economic costs matter and should be calculated and a reasonable tradeoff should be made.

You can't make a statement like that and then turn around and complain about my hypothetical 300% price increase for a 900% safety increase.


I think we're in agreement then. I don't think in terms of absolutes, there's always a trade-off to be made and one must be rational and measured.


Regulation (Pre-1978) did mean much, much higher fares.

By 1990 alone inflation adjusted fares had fallen 30% since deregulation. They've fallen more since.

"Airline revenue per passenger mile has declined from an inflation-adjusted 33.3 cents in 1974, to 13 cents in the first half of 2010. In 1974 the cheapest round-trip New York-Los Angeles flight (in inflation-adjusted dollars) that regulators would allow: $1,442. Today one can fly that same route for $268." (https://www.bloomberg.com/businessweek/bwdaily/dnflash/conte...)


I think it would be a mistake to attribute all of those price changes to deregulation. Lot's of things have happened since then, including improvements in efficiency and technology, insane competition driving profit margins nearly to zero, removing lots of frills and comforts, increased automation (not in the plane as much as everywhere else in the process and org.) If you look at other regulatory environments you'll see similar price drops. I'm sure it was a factor to some extent though - but lower prices is not a good argument for playing fast and loose with human lives.


They aren't though. As I've stated in other comments, airline travel is incredibly safe. About 500x safer than driving.

This "life and death" talk is just tabloid sensationalism. The numbers don't support it, all. Airline travel is the safest means of transports that exists, or has ever existed, by quite a margin.


I agree, and I get how safe air travel is. But let's not underplay this either. We had two crashes with hundreds of fatalities because the regulator decided to let the fox watch the hen house. That's sad and avoidable.


No it wouldn’t.

The regulations worked fine and weren’t super expensive, until the FAA decided to outsource its regulations to the very companies it was supposed to regulate (Boeing).



Depends how many people die at current levels?


Very very few.

Air travel in the US averages 0.2 deaths per 10 billion passenger-miles.

Driving is 150 deaths per 10B P-M.

Driving across a small town is more likely to kill you than flying across the country.


That is current. I suspect the longer that an industry has heavy self regulation, the higher the cost is.

I also do not agree with the premise that imposing stricter regulation would "double" the cost of tickets. Airline tickets have come down in price for MANY reasons, not just less regulation.


Incorrect.

Deregulation happened in 1978. Deaths have been trending down ever since.


Do you know that correlation does not imply causation?

I would suggest the site https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations


That also has the upside of cutting carbon emissions from air travel.




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