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> It's crazy that by using a p-value of 0.05, it means that 5% of all scientific results might be false.

That would only be the case if scientists were robots who immediately published anything with a p-value up to 0.05. They're not, though. If they get clearly nonsensical results, they will obviously re-evaluate it. In other words, the p-value doesn't incorporate the fact that the experiment passed sanity checks in your own head (and the reviewers') before it was published. (And yes, there are bad actors in every field who game the system, but my point still stands.)



From what I've heard on HN, scientists are actually robots who massage their data until they get a p-value <0.05 and then immediately publish.


No, the publishing process takes a long time. Sometimes it could be years.


Yeah, but in Russia they use nine women to produce a baby in only one month.


This sounds like some kind of comment about divisibility of the work to publish something. I don't get it though.

After the bulk of the paper is written, I can easily proofread, typeset, etc everything myself in less than a week. Now get someone else to double check that. Lets say that is another week.

After that the only thing is to get someone worthwhile to spend some time on your paper and point out anything confusing or erroneous. Granted, this could take a month or so of study. However, I never really saw that happen in practice. In reality you would be lucky to get people to glance over it one evening.

So what is taking so long?


In my experience a significant fraction of the time it takes to publish a paper is spent waiting for the journal. During that time you can do other useful research. The long delay between submitting, getting through the reviewers and the actual publication is one of the reasons why for example in CS a lot of the interesting stuff happens in conference publications with fast turnarounds and the journal versions of the same paper appear a year or two later.


>"waiting for the journal"

Yes, what are they doing?


I suspect this factor is balanced, or completely overruled, g the scientists who get p values greater than 0.05, decide that result doesn’t pass their sanity check (it clearly should be significant!) and collect more data or tweak the methods until it’s significant.


I think that if scientists were robots, results would be much better than we have today - robots don't care about careers and grants.


Depends on the field. Some fields are very careful about this, while others are not.




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