Saying "probably" is a way of avoiding dishonestly over-representing his confidence in the marriage lasting. Obviously you're offended, but don't let that be an excuse to let your reasoning slip.
OP: "Any honest person would answer their vows with not "I do" but "probably".
I answered mine with "I do". Does that make me a dishonest person? Did you read my vows?
Are mortgages also a lie? Should everyone have signed "probably" in case they ended up in jingle-mail territory? Are then then dishonest people? I think not. Perhaps my honesty bar is set too low, but, again, I think not.
Saying that a commitment question (Yes/no, In/out, etc) should be answered with "probably" is a little strange, and a little naive, I think.
Statistically, 4 in 10 people who say "I do" will be proved wrong eventually, but nobody ever considers for a minute that it will be them. Everyone thinks that they are special, that they will beat the odds, that the rules of probability do not apply to them.
If 40% of mortgages ended in default, it would be a national emergency, but for some reason we accept that close to half of marriages end in divorce. The vows of marriage clearly fail to reflect how people actually decide to live their lives. In that sense, marriage is an outmoded institution, one I feel is in urgent need of revision.
We have to accept as a society that while the majority of us say we want to pair for life, a very large proportion of us actually do not want that. The cultural fallout of these dashed hopes and broken promises is truly toxic. We are collectively living in denial. We are telling children that mummy and daddy will be together forever, in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary. We need to be more honest and rational, to ourselves and to others.
Fifty years ago, divorce was rare. A hundred years ago, it was unheard of. At some point in the near future, divorce will be the most likely end of a marriage. The costs to society are clearly enormous and we urgently need to revise the legal nature of marriage to better reflect the practical reality. I do not oppose marriage; I oppose an outmoded version of marriage that enshrines self-deception and the deception of others into law.
Our cultural and legal concept of marriage is very specific and is in no way definitive. In many parts of the Islamic world, marriage can legally be of a fixed length, with exit terms prearranged. This to me seems far more rational, in preserving the true purpose of marriage (the protection of patrilineage) while allowing for more long-term flexibility and reducing the costs of divorce to near-zero.
> Statistically, 4 in 10 people who say "I do" will be proved wrong eventually
Being proven wrong does not make you a liar, nor dishonest.
A commitment question is not a probability question, it asks whether you are in or out. Is it more honest to answer "probably" when asked whether you want another card when drawing 14 at blackjack? Are you dishonest if it turns out you made a mistake?
> the majority of us say we want to pair for life, a very large proportion of us actually do not want that.
So...the one group should force their viewpoint on the other?
> We need to be more honest and rational, to ourselves and to others.
I think I am being completely honest and rational. I don't tell my kids mummy and daddy will be together for ever, I tell them what the plan is.
> The costs to society are clearly enormous
Do you mean social costs or financial costs? How are the costs reduced if there is no marriage (except for in litigious societies, and if you removed marriage in them then lawsuits would simply shift to the next level)?
> Our cultural and legal concept of marriage is very specific
Yours or mine? You state that "marriage is a lie". I think it is not for everyone, but some people like it.
In my country, the costs of divorce are near-zero. Maybe it is expensive in some countries. Why then is that a problem with marriage, and not with that countries legal and social system?
Why is marriage "a lie"? Why is it dishonest to say "I do"?
Edit: Note that I think you are very likely right about marriage needing reform in the way that it fits into some modern societies. However, the terms you use to describe many people's happy lifestyles, people who may well think about things just as much as you, are somewhat inflammatory.
My marriage is one of the best things in my life, and having it described as a lie and myself described as dishonest is offensive, I guess.
Society has changed a lot, but maybe marriage is not the thing that needs changing to fix the problems you see.
