And it's thanks to that kind of dishonorable practice that $NVO has lost 64% of its value over the last year. This is how the world rewards the makers of the most successful and helpful drug in history.
A huge chunk of Novo losing it's valuation is the fact that Eli Lilly is absolutely destroying them on the next generations of these. Tirzepatide is better than Semaglutide, and Retatrutide is better than Tirzepatide. Mazdutide looks to be a particularly good fit for Asia for a variety of reasons. And from Novo, Cagrilintide/CagriSema look to be a bust. Rybelsus is a bust.
Other "newcomers" in the GLP-1 space are also showing more promise than what Novo has in the pipeline. Boehringer Ingelheim has Survodutide in the pipeline as well, along with plenty of others.
They're the least interesting game in town when it comes to the incretin mimetics at this point.
They’ve been rewarded enough (~$14.65B USD net profit 2024), and are lucky they’re allowed to capture any further economic benefit from the sale of a simple compound (imho).
... a simple compound that was already developed and in-use, so the current patent (the one that's made it a big, ongoing news story and a kind of social phenomenon) is rewarding only going through the approval process for using it for weight loss, specifically, not development of a new drug.
> In the 1970s, Jens Juul Holst and Joel Habener began research on the GLP-1 hormone [...] Research continued, and in 1993, Michael Nauck managed to infuse GLP-1 into people with type 2 diabetes, stimulating insulin while inhibiting glucagon and bringing blood glucose to normal levels. However, treating diabetes patients with GLP-1 hormones resulted in significant side effects, leading researchers financed by Novo Nordisk to start looking to develop a suitable compound for therapeutic use. In 1998, a team of researchers at Novo Nordisk led by the scientist Lotte Bjerre Knudsen developed liraglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist that could be used to treat diabetes.
GLP-1 is a hormone that naturally occurs in the human body. Novo Nordisk was responsible for turning it into a diabetes medication. They were responsible for turning it into a weight loss medication.
Why not get it read by a couple peers and iterate on their feedback?
My writing is not great, but with the design docs I created, the first version is always terrible, not easily understandable mostly because of not listing all the assumptions whereas the third version almost always becomes something I would never be able to achieve myself. Over the years, I settled on 2 rounds of review. First to mostly add missing sections and rearchitect the design and the doc, second to mostly hone the explanation/details.
You have nice coworkers willing to read drafts. If your coworkers are busier (if they are more senior) they might not. Or they might read half a page and then stop because there isn't enough context and background information in the doc. Or they might read something and misunderstand it because of bad writing. I'm usually not the kind to waste other people's time like that.
Michael Lewis wrote a book called Flashboys all about it. If your network speed and processing power are faster than the competitors, then you can move faster than them on any trade. Really interesting stuff
PFOF does not frontrun — it wouldn't even make sense to frontrun. Retail orders tend to be bad; it makes no sense to frontrun a bad order, especially if you're the market maker who's fulfilling it too.
Let's imagine a bustling farmer's market where market makers are savvy fruit stand owners, and regular traders are shoppers. Here's how the market makers might "front run" orders to make arbitrage profits:
## The Fruit Stand Scenario
Imagine you're at a large farmer's market with numerous fruit stands. You're looking to buy a crate of apples, and you ask a friendly fruit stand owner, Citadel, for the price.
*The Setup:*
- You want to buy a crate of apples
- Citadel’s stand is selling apples for $50 per crate
- There's another stand nearby selling for $48, but it's not immediately visible
*The Front-Running Process:*
1. *Information Advantage:*
Citadel, being a regular at the market, knows about the nearby stand selling apples for $48.
2. *Customer's Intent:*
When you ask Citadel for the price, they realizes you're likely to buy a crate.
3. *Quick Action:*
Before quoting you a price, Citadel quickly sends his assistant to buy a crate from the $48 stand.
4. *Price Quote:*
Citadel then tells you his price is $50 per crate, which you accept.
5. *Fulfillment:*
Citadel’s assistant returns with the $48 crate, which Citadel then sells to you for $50.
6. *Profit:*
Citadel pockets the $2 difference as profit, without ever risking his own inventory.
## The Market Making Parallel
In the financial markets, this process happens at lightning speed:
1. Market makers see incoming orders before they're fully processed.
2. They quickly buy or sell ahead of large orders on other exchanges.
3. They then fulfill the original order at a slightly worse price.
4. The profit comes from the price difference between exchanges.
This practice, while controversial, is often justified by market makers as providing liquidity and tighter spreads. However, it can be seen as unfair to traders who may not get the best possible price for their orders.
Not following this.
1. Aren’t everybody seeing the book at the same time? The exchange do not publish the same data to everybody?
2. The “information advantage example” does not make sense to me. If there is an order for 48$, that is top of book and everyone has seen that order, how come the new participant not know it?
Nice write up! Can you flesh out your example a little bit with more specifics about how the stock market version works? In particular, are the front-runners actually taking a risk by buying before they have a committed order? Or are they committing to sell before they buy from the cheaper source on the assumption it will still be available? And is selling order flow something different, or the same thing here?
Selling order flow is a related but distinct practice:
- Order Flow Sales: This involves brokers selling information about their customers’ orders to interested parties.
- Potential for Front-Running: While not inherently front-running, selling order flow can enable it if the buyers use this information to trade ahead of customer orders.
- Payment for Order Flow: This practice allows some brokers to offer commission-free trades, as they make money by routing orders to specific market makers.
Front-runners do take on some risk, but it’s typically minimal:
- Speed: Modern front-running often occurs using high-frequency trading algorithms, minimizing the time between the front-runner’s trade and the large order execution.
- Committed Orders: Front-runners act on knowledge of committed orders, not mere possibilities. They have an informational advantage.
I'm not sure what exactly it contains but all those leaks contain Name, Address and your national identity number(something like social security number). It must also contain the birthplace and date because the last elections there was question over how many refugees got citizenship and the opposition said they checked the birthplaces and the number is not too high.
BTW, this data is available for the citizens too during the election cycle so you can check who lives in the same building with you and correct any mistakes. The list of the electorate is also attached at the polls so anyone can check for something fishy.
Then in Turkey there's this obsession with companies about collecting as much as info possible about you, so when the food delivery service is hacked the hackers now can easily add your phone number, update your current address by matching your national identity number because for some reason they need to have that info to deliver some kebab.
Also, this national identity number is generated through some algorithm which gives away your relatives and thanks to this, the hackers can also build your social graph from the leaks. Here is a repo about that algo: https://github.com/kerematam/akrabatcno
AFAIK it’s used in “your grandson had an accident and needs emergency surgery, send this much money ASAP” scams.
> AFAIK it’s used in “your grandson had an accident and needs emergency surgery, send this much money ASAP” scams.
Sad to hear that that scam is also used in Turkey, some very low and despicable people also use it here, in Romania, targeting elderly people, and it’s really vile. I explicitly warned my parents not to fall for it in case someone calls them.
> this data is available for the citizens too during the election cycle so you can check who lives in the same building with you and correct any mistakes.
Why are they crowdsourcing a task that is a basic bureaucratic process in any state?
I mean, is Turkey a state that doesn't know who its citizens are and where they live?
It's primary function is to prevent election fraud. In Turkey, elections are a serious business with participation rate above 85% and people are meticulous about the process.
Also, in Turkey the address registration is self declaration based and the government doesn't actually check if you live there. So theoretically, it can be possible for a political party to arrange it's voters distribution in such a way that it is advantageous for them. The idea is that citizens should be able to check against such things.
I'm from Italy. When I change the place where I live I declare the new address and before they update my data an officer comes and checks that I really live there. They can get in and check that's not an empty house and I'm only pretending to live there, if they want to. The check is usually nothing more than peeking through the door though.
Wow that's creepy even for me, who lived for many years in Turkey. In Turkey, the only check is a reference from someone who is already registered in that address. All this can be done online, you declare your new address from turkiye.gov.tr and someone who's registered in that address can approve your declaration.
Do you know that in UK they don't even have such a registry? The government doesn't know where you live(at least officially) and when you need to apply for something that requires proof of address they would use bank statements on your name sent by mail to that address.
I wonder how do you feel about it? Do you think that the Italian approach is better? Why would the government has to know where you live for sure? Is it to prevent benefit frauds?
No idea, it's been like that since forever AFAIK. At least it solves a lot of problems (you just show your photo id) and basically everybody you have a contract with would know that information anyway, utilities, banks, etc.
Edit: there is a difference between the place you live and the place you are registered into. Example: a student is registered at parents' home and goes to study at a university in another city. He rents a room there. He has a contract there and the landlord must notify that the student lives there (since the terrorism laws in the 70s) but the student is still registered and votes at the city of his parents unless he registers at the other city.
This is common also for workers. Maybe they live for years in a city (and the state knows) but they are still registered on their home one.
In the UK we have the electoral register. In order to vote, you need to be registered to it. The government most definitely does use it, as do credit scoring agencies and identitity verification services.
A lot of places do accept bank statements as a backup if you are not on the electoral roll.
So the reason SVB had trouble with their assets is that they had to reprice the mortgage based securities they had to sell off.
If I wanted to buy back my house's mortgage from the bank, they'd ask me to pay the full principal.
But if JP Morgan buys it off SVB, they'd discount the mortgage and pay either 80 cents to the dollar or 50 cents (!), while they get to collect the whole principal & interest back from me as I repay.
What if I could buy it off SVB at fire sale prices, instead of some other financial firm?
This is probably most relevant when you think of medical debt, for example John Oliver's medical debt give away where he bought 14.9 millon dollars in debt for 60k & just forgave it through a non-profit (because debt forgiveness is a taxable event, which is just a tax loophole otherwise).
If you owe a hospital a million dollars and they are willing to sell it for 100k, why should you keep owing a million after its been sold for that price?
And as others have mentioned upthread, Mosix was an extension to Linux that also implemented fork() in such a way that the child could be local or remote with file handles retained across the cluster. We had a Linux lan party when I was in college and managed to scrape together a Mosix cluster across a bunch of machines.
No. VM migration moves entire virtual computers. Forking makes a copy of a process with the current state; this moves that single duplicated process to a different machine.
