There are a lot of people who complain about it being hard to make friends as an adult.
Products exist for this, but I'm not aware of any that have hit a home run. I think the biggest barrier is closing this gap: I personally want more friends since I don't have the social skills to reliably go proactively make a friend randomly out of a newfound acquaintance or friend of a friend. So I can go to a meetup, say, of people with similar interests. But I would need the aforementioned social skills - that I don't have - to convert those people into recurring "real" friends. Dating apps work better here because there's a much higher incentive for me to put myself forward in a way I'm not otherwise comfortable with. Vs "eh I have some friends already, I don't want to be awkward or embarrass myself."
I become increasingly convinced that it's not a problem that can be reliably directly intermediated for you. The best friendships I have that I was introduced to electronically came from recurring discussions around a shared interest on a site or forum or channel that then became a friendship. Trying to force things to go the other way is far harder. It either needs to be indirect OR you need to have an extremely high level of social skills (in which case you aren't likely to need this app in the first place).
Those recurring online discussions? That's social skill practice. That's putting in your reps. The Reddit or HN format is one of the harder ones for that; there are many better ones, though. But ultimately it all comes down to work and practice. In the same way that there isn't a pill or phone accessory that will build your muscles or teach you another language without putting in the work.
So your desire is to have to talk to people less as a way to meet people? Seems like a good way to have absolutely no useful social skills left for when things reach the offline world.
You're gonna lose all the best parts of life in an attempt to deal only with robots to avoid a few rough edges here and there. You don't know what you want as well as you think you do, serendipity is a necessity.
Well on our way to "everything is amazing and nobody is happy" times infinity.
(Much of this already exists, of course, and there are ANY number of "but our match percentages were so high!!" disaster dates out there that have left the human-blind-data-focused in sad confusion. The secret is that the accuracy of the match percentage was not the problem.)
These are not mutually-exclusive. You can talk to the same amount of people using your very limited time AND ALSO utilize a tool like this to expand upon possible connections.
Plus, there are a lot of things people want that are not socially acceptable to discuss publicly for privacy reasons. AI could potentially be a non-judgmental, privacy-preserving matchmaker here.
> You’re gonna lose all the
As previously stated, it’s not mutually exclusive. Existing online dating did not completely replace “meeting people randomly”.
> everything is amazing and
You can just stop there. lol
> (anecdote about things looking rationally perfect on paper)
Yes. this is true, there is an element of people that cannot be captured by rational mechanisms (I believe this too). But also imagine being able to filter down to just those possible people. Ruling out all the rational things that are dealbreakers for you. Imagine a matchmaker AI that is so smart that it can “intuit” what might work for you that you don’t even realize, based on data (personal example, if you are ADHD, you are automatically attracted to non-ADHD people as partners, but this also has the danger of creating resentment… Or if you claim to like functional languages, the AI might figure out that what you really like is solving problems as efficiently as possible, so it might give you a job recommendation that you might otherwise overlook because you’d end up making a deep and satisfying impact there)
My point is not about match quality, it's about conversion rate and chemistry - which we don't know how to quantify precisely, but is majorly influenced by very concrete, non-abstract, social skills, styles, and tendencies.
Time spent chatting with a machine is time not spent interacting with people. That is mutually exclusive. Sure, it's not guaranteed that it's displacing time spent interacting with people - it may be displacing time spent dicking around with machines in other ways. Someone might already not be interacting with people. But then this doesn't fix this. If you're talking with ChatGPT instead of messaging people on a dating app, sending out messages on LinkedIn, or chatting on Reddit, you'll get even less social feedback than you do through those today.
The connections could be perfectly well-matched. But the conversion rate depends on things other than that match quality. And those are all the things that you can't practice in front of a screen. If someone fumbles the bag when meeting someone in person for the first time, the only thing that will help them is repetition and practice. It's hard. It's frustrating. It's demoralizing. But it will still be necessary even with "better okcupid."
> Imagine a matchmaker AI that is so smart that it can “intuit” what might work for you that you don’t even realize, based on data
I'm not imagining that here, I'm imagining the "merge our chat GPT conversation history contexts" scenario. A super-human AI could potentially do all sorts of things to help mitigate the lack of practice at live human interaction that today's tools result in. Or it could turn people into wireheads who abandon society altogether. I think we're enough years away from that that to not find it particularly worth addressing. It's not going to make anyone's life better in the immediate future. Practicing will. Talking to ChatGPT instead of getting out there won't.
Alright, I'll humor you. Is your assertion falsifiable?
People will always choose the more efficient option. If it takes me 15 hours being "out there" to manually find 1 possible work or romantic interest, and this hypothetical service just keeps dumping possible matches into my inbox of which just 20% pass what I'll call the "irrational interaction test" (i.e. "things other than match quality"), that's still a massive efficiency increase. So both a "better OKCupid", and a "better Linkedin/Dice/etc". I could still go out and touch grass and try to let serendipity do its work.
The question I'm asking is, if you're arguing against this, then are you also arguing against the OKCupids of the world? What about other automated forms of matchmaking? Are you saying those are taking more than they're giving (at least as far as "enriching people's lives" is concerned)? Why would some service that might do this an order of magnitude better (even if "things other than match quality" still counted for a lot), not be an overall good?
I stopped reading here. I don't think it's possible to have a constructive conversation with someone who communicates this way. The snotty disrespect rules out productive exchange of ideas.
I am not trying to convey snotty disrespect, otherwise I would not have bothered answering. The "I'll humor you" was delivered with a playful smile on my end, if you can picture that (an argument for in-person interaction if I ever saw one!). I am actually curious about your perspective. Sorry about the miscommunication or poor word/phrasing choice. Perhaps ChatGPT would have helped me word it better (rimshot)
The problem is that I'm still curious about your answer to the question in my third paragraph, with the perspective I tried to add in my 2nd paragraph lol
Unfortunately it all came crashing down in my 1st paragraph
What if it doesn't survive and 70% of the people who were in the Kingdom end up in worse, arbitrarily-ruled, small despotic fiefdoms instead? And only 10% end up being better off by being lucky enough to have landed in the high-trust+high-competence small group?
Or, switching to consumer products vs company revenue/profit or kingdoms, and grounding in a specific example: people love to hate Windows, but how many of them would actually be better off if the options were just Mac (still expensive, still niche) or Linux? And "well they could just learn how to [code or configure text files or whatever]" for these purposes counts as worse off, IMO - more time spent on something that used to kinda-sorta-at-least-work-predictably for them.
> people love to hate Windows, but how many of them would actually be better off if the options were just Mac (still expensive, still niche) or Linux?
I don't know, but Windows has becoming increasingly worse at everyday usage. I swear Linux has better suspend/sleep functionality now, doesn't sneaky restart randomly (yeah, just because you reopen an explorer window but none of my other, actually important programs will definitely make people notice), doesn't take a minute to react to an unlock attempt several times a day for no reason on even very performant hardware..
So yeah, I think many would be better off with Linux.
Your comparison isn't very good as Microsoft Windows undergoes perpetual change and churn for the sake of doing it. This breaks existing workflows along the way. As a product it was effectively complete by the time Windows 2000 was released, having successfully integrated what was then considered state of the art technology to develop a practical operating system based on the principals known at the time. All it ever needed from there forward was maintenance updates and kernel updates to enable new hardware level technology to be harnessed by software.
The biggest mistake those employees make on their way to getting overlooked is assuming their boss knows.
Everyone needs to advocate for themselves.
A good boss will be getting feedback from everyone and staying on top of things. A mediocre boss will merely see "obvious" things like "who closed the most tickets." A bad boss may just play favorites and game the system on their own.
If you've got a bad boss who doesn't like you, you're likely screwed regardless. But most bosses are mediocre, not actively bad.
And in that case, the person who consistently helps unblock everyone needs to be advertising that to their manager. The person who's work doesn't need revisiting, who doesn't cause incidents needs to be hammering that home to their manager. You can do that without throwing your teammates under the bus, but you can't assume omnipotence or omniscience. And you can't wait until the performance review cycle to do it, you have to demonstrate it as an ongoing thing.
Your boss can know about it, but if their boss wants data on performance you’re back in the same boat.
Funny you mention engineers needing to market themselves though. That leads to its own consequences. I’ve been at a place where everyone needed to market their own work in order to get promoted, to get raises, and to stay off the chopping block.
The end result? The engineers at the company who get promoted are… good at self-promotion, not necessarily good at engineering. Many of the best engineers at the company—who were hired to do engineering—languish in obscurity while people who can game the system thrive. People get promoted who are only good at cranking out poorly-made deliverables that burden their team with excessive long-term maintenance issues. They fuck off to higher levels of the company, leaving their team to deal with the consequences of their previous work.
Run that script for five or ten years and it doesn’t seem to be working out well for the company.
You made excellent points. As someone looking to solve problems, finish tasks and go home. I just don't feel energized marketing myself if it is not during changing jobs.
And measurement has really taken over now. There is little value in getting task done well as compared to finishing more jira stories.
And that's fine. It's why the lifecycle of most technology companies is fairly short. They grow for a while and eventually stagnate, to be replaced by the next crop of startups when a disruptive innovation comes along. And then the cycle repeats.
When it comes time for layoffs, it generally isn't what your boss knows, it's what your boss's grandboss thinks to throw onto a spreadsheet at the eleventh hour before Quarterly Reports are due.
A good direct boss might keep you on track for a bonus or other "local advancement", maybe even a promotion, but many companies you are only as valued as the ant numbers you look like from the C Suite's mile high club. (Which doesn't protect your good boss, either.)
I agree it's a mistake but one thing that's never taken into account in this discussion is that many people find it enough that they are doing their jobs. They don't want to do marketing. A lot of tech people are like that which is a real tragedy.
If you aren't getting the binary from your repo's package manager the "update in one place for bugfixes" thing often no longer applies. At least with a container management system the various not-distro-managed things have something akin to a standard way to version bump them vs "go download this from that ftp, go pull this from that repo, etc."
My issue with that approach is that it's easier for me to write code than to read code and grok all the subtleties of one approach vs another.
Writing thousands of lines? I'm actively thinking about the specific method.
Reading thousands of lines of someone else's code? I might fall into a more passive mode and miss a problem.
I am more likely to do the reverse: write it myself, have LLMs summarize it or suggest how to test it/break it/whatever.
In many situations a sufficiently-described statement of "here is exactly what I want the code to do" is not significantly easier to write than the code itself. Especially when the AI is doing the annoying tedious bits through autocomplete suggestions, vs letting it try to do the whole thing based on a sufficiently-described prompt.
> Reading thousands of lines of someone else's code? I might fall into a more passive mode and miss a problem.
Or just bad design. I use AI a fair amount for my personal work (my employer currently bans it), and what I've found is it's a great accelerant, BUT you have to be super vigilant with it to keep the quality decent. It's very good at producing code that will make it past your average code review but has design issues that are going to make things harder down the road and getting it to refactor these itself can be quite difficult at times. I generally find myself in a loop of asking the AI to do something, doing a few rounds of refinement with it, especially around test cases, then a manual refactor/cleanup pass over the tests, followed by a manual refactor of the code.
When I read accounts of other people gushing over AI, allowing them to do some semi-complicated thing in under an hour, it really makes me worry about how this is going to affect the readability of the average codebase in a few years' time.
Hmm, I like this idea of "write napkin code and let LLM review/expand". In principle one can probably be quite fast and loose at this stage after all, and as you mention for coders it's often easier to express an idea in napkin code (be that "pseudocode" or real code with just zero effort into correctness as a pilot hole).
> I think the US would prefer a UHC if we were starting from a blank slate. The difficulty is mapping a path from what we have now to that.
Do you remember when Republicans went on and on about how "Democrats rammed through the ACA without a single Republican vote"? As if that represented a problem on the Democratic Party side, and not the Republican one? Despite the similarities to models proposed by Republicans in the past, and the relative conservative step it represented from "Byzantine kludge of often poor-to-no-coverage" to "something with a higher floor"? That's how hard it would be to find a Republican to "prefer a UHC if we were starting from a blank slate."
It's important not to underestimate the distrust of government services and regulation of any sort of the Republican base. The conservative media - talk-radio, then cable, then social/podcasts - has been intentionally undermining the credibility of government services at every opportunity for 40 years. And the politicians hamstring and sabotage whenever they get a chance to try to make sure that services offered in the US are sub-par compared to elsewhere.
It's a well-oiled machine running a cycle that keeps people focused on anything else but the services they actually use all the time so that cognitive dissonance can't creep in. (Granted, sometimes, when necessary to acknowledge those things, they'll fall back to making it clear that YOU earned/paid for the things you use, but those other gross poor people are just freeloaders.)
It's like with abortion - for decades "overturning Roe V Wade" was what Republicans said they wanted to do. And people kept trying to convince themselves "oh they don't really mean that, they wouldn't do that actually anymore." Take their word on it about wanting to tear down government services.
> It's important not to underestimate the distrust of government services and regulation of any sort of the Republican base. The conservative media - talk-radio, then cable, then social/podcasts - has been intentionally undermining the credibility of government services at every opportunity for 40 years. And the politicians hamstring and sabotage whenever they get a chance to try to make sure that services offered in the US are sub-par compared to elsewhere.
This is partly what I was getting at when I said the culture of the US is different and the scale is much larger than European countries. It's not just geographically larger, but it's politically and ideologically broader too. If you have a wonderful idea like UHC, you need to make it work with liberals, conservatives, and everyone in between. Like it or not, a universal healthcare or Medicare for all plan is either going to be DoA in Congress, or a considerably watered-down and Americanized version if it has any hope at all of getting enough senators to pass it without first seeing massive electoral college reform in this country first.
That is the scale of the US. You can't assume that an idea that's well-liked and popular in another country is going to be popular and well-liked here.
Considering that Europe is composed of many countries with massively different histories, cultures, economies and languages I find that a very unconvincing argument. The US are much more culturualy homogeneous than Europe. I mean just go across the country and look at the patriotic displays of flags which also transcends political differences. In contrast in Europe you first would be seeing different flags, but also displaying flags has very different acceptance rates in different countries.
Right, but we're not talking about "Europe", we're talking about each individual country. I don't think it's reasonable to say that France, for example, is more culturally diverse than the US.
And the various countries in Europe do have different healthcare systems, sometimes significantly different.
Comedies often have some mockery built in, and comedies aimed at kids in particular like to take shots at authority, but there are a lot of examples I can think of in just the general-TV-millenial-vibe-y things I've watched over the past couple of decades. More than the "bumbling dad" type, I'd say, from things I've seen in the zeitgeist (I guess one recent super typical example is Rick and Morty, though everyone sucks there):
* Arrested Development: Michael is the most competent of the bunch. His father was also quite competent, if an asshole and eventual criminal. But, you know, that put the "sit" in sitcom...
* Luke from Gilmore Girls is pretty consistently more sane than Lorelai, turns out to be a good dad too IIRC; other fathers include a loser and a number of very successful businessmen, teachers, etc.
* King of the Hill: doing his best, often the most sane of the bunch
* Bob's Burgers: haven't watched a ton of this but from what I've seen Bob is a goofball but respectable and wholesome, kinda a Hank Hill. Not a lazy Homer
* Parks and Rec: Ben Wyatt is a pretty positive character
* Brooklyn 99: Terry is practically a superman of competence and seems to hold is own with his wife and kids. Holt is a supremely competent husband. Boyle is a goofball generally and in dating, but that does not really extend to his eventual marriage and child, where he seems to be doing quite well.
* Schitt's Creek: Johnny is the competent center of the family surrounded by comically exaggerated crazy wife + kids
Dramas seem even further away. Where do Breaking Bad or the Sopranos land?
Add Keith from Veronica Mars to the list— he’s an absolute rock for her and manages well the balance between being protective while also letting her go her own way.
Products exist for this, but I'm not aware of any that have hit a home run. I think the biggest barrier is closing this gap: I personally want more friends since I don't have the social skills to reliably go proactively make a friend randomly out of a newfound acquaintance or friend of a friend. So I can go to a meetup, say, of people with similar interests. But I would need the aforementioned social skills - that I don't have - to convert those people into recurring "real" friends. Dating apps work better here because there's a much higher incentive for me to put myself forward in a way I'm not otherwise comfortable with. Vs "eh I have some friends already, I don't want to be awkward or embarrass myself."
I become increasingly convinced that it's not a problem that can be reliably directly intermediated for you. The best friendships I have that I was introduced to electronically came from recurring discussions around a shared interest on a site or forum or channel that then became a friendship. Trying to force things to go the other way is far harder. It either needs to be indirect OR you need to have an extremely high level of social skills (in which case you aren't likely to need this app in the first place).
Those recurring online discussions? That's social skill practice. That's putting in your reps. The Reddit or HN format is one of the harder ones for that; there are many better ones, though. But ultimately it all comes down to work and practice. In the same way that there isn't a pill or phone accessory that will build your muscles or teach you another language without putting in the work.
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