Oscillators are hard because our specs on oscillators are absurd.
Let's take the common watch circuit. Conceptually it's just like 5 components: crystal, a few capacitors, a NOT gate/transistor/amplifier. Introduce 180-degree phase shift at the 32.768k target frequency and bam, oscillator.
Except not really. A clock is expected to have a drift in the region of 100 ppm (or 0.001% error), or lose a second per day or so. That's the hard part, building something that accurate and consistent.
There are also startup specs, power specs (less power is harder. More power helps startup....) etc. etc.
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If you just need something to oscillate back and forth randomly, try making a noise generator lol, it will oscillate wildly at many frequencies, one of which might have been the frequency you wanted.
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The 555 timer is perhaps the easiest oscillator for a beginner if you are willing to put up with +/-10% drift. It's honestly good enough for far more applications than you might expect.
Even without the premade chip, a 555 timer is just 2x comparators (analog version of an If statement), a 33%/33%/33% voltage divider, and a capacitor. If Voltage > 66% input voltage, remove power from capacitor. If Voltage < 33% input voltage, add power to capacitor. Bam, you now have an oscillator that is accurate to the +/-10% capacitance values of your electronics kit.
Alas, modern circuits need to be faster and more accurate than the humble 555. But a beginner article about oscillators should be about the 555, rather than about opamp or transistor based oscillators.
Well yeah. No one is saying that China cannot do that. Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships.
Force Chinas growth to be more expensive. It has nothing to do with not believing China can do it, it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.
> Just that the political calculus is that it's better for China to spend their resources on that, rather than building up troops and warships.
Note that this calculus only makes sense if you invade China while they are busy with the EUV machines, otherwise they catch up technologically and then build all the scary military.
Of course, the the calculus doesn't make sense at all, because the obvious order when you can't do both is you build enough military to feel safe first, then you try for the tech race.
Their plan was to buy those chips and equipment and have the troops/ships/weapons sooner.
Now China has to build EUV themselves, then mass produce chips. It slows them down regardless and costs them resources.
Cut off the market before it becomes a problem.
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Militarily, delaying China into 2040s after the USA has stealth destroyers of our own (beginning production in late 2020s, mass production in the 2030s) means China has to fight vs 2030s era tech instead of our 1980s era Arleigh Burke DDGs.
What, do you want to have the fight in late 2020s or would you rather have the war in late 2030s? There is a huge difference and USAs production schedule cannot change. But we can change Chinas production schedule.
> the obvious order when you can't do both is you build enough military to feel safe first, then you try for the tech race
Literally zero actual wars with a technological component have progressed like this. (The first tradeoff to be made is the one Russia is making: sacrificing consumption for military production and research. Guns and butter.)
That's not true. Mass/quantity can still resist/delay/push back until you're exhausted and done.
We're not anymore in the swords vs guns era. We're talking about hypersonic missiles vs super intelligent hypersonic missiles. Still, all it takes is 1 dumb missile to pass through the defenses and an entire city can be wiped off. At the end of the day, they don't care if a missiles didn't reach the precise target. As you can see in Ukraine, Russia is bombing all types of buildings, they don't give a damn about schools, kindergarten or so.
> We're not anymore in the swords vs guns era. We're talking about hypersonic missiles vs super intelligent hypersonic missiles
These are still hypotheticals. Every war since the Civil War has had a decisive technological component. If the model doesn't apply there, this time probably ain't different.
Yes. Concern around Soviet space and missiles capabilities overtaking America’s directly lead to Kennedy changing his mind on no boots on the ground.
(The Vietnam War started with America betting on BVR, with the long-seeing but minimally-agile F-4 Phantom. Soviet MiG-21s, on the other hand, blended into civilian traffic. This lead to disaster. When the MiG-25 rolled out, we countered with the F-15 Eagle. But it came too late, which meant we couldn’t establish air superiority with long-range aircraft alone.)
Note: I’m not saying this was the decisive component. It was one among many, and not the most important. But if we had F-15s at the outset, when the Soviets had MiG-21s, there is a better chance the skirmish would have stayed in the skies and Vietnam would have stalemated like Korea.
> it's about slowing them down in a task we believe that they can do.
But it's not slowing them down. It's forcing them to accelerate development ( aka investing more into the sector ). Has china invested more or less? It's amazing how blind people are to this counterintuitive fact.
> Oh, and your plan is to just give them the chips they want directly?
"Give them"? I love sneaky propagandists. No, make them pay for it. It's what we do to our "allies" so that they are dependent on american tech.
> Of course investing into chip development is slowing China down.
From a myopic narrow point of view. But viewed more broadly, it has accelerated china's tech development.
> Its slower to build their own than for us to give them those chips.
In the short term, but not the long term. Just like banning china from participating in the international space station forced china to accelerate their development of their space program.
> From a myopic narrow point of view. But viewed more broadly, it has accelerated china's tech development.
Yes. I'm fine with this.
Weakening China in the short term means pushing the Taiwan war timeline by years. Years that we will spend building up the DDG(X).
As I said before and I'll say again: USA is weak in 2020s but strong in the 2030s. We only need to delay China by a few years and the DDG(X) changes everything.
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You need to understand that I make my view based on the perceived strength of the US Navy. The US Navy is getting huge upgrades and a few years of delay makes an incredible difference.
> For what? The US Navy will play no role in a war between china and taiwan.
Uhhhhh, Taiwan is an island dude. That's either Marines or Navy. I'm betting Navy will do the heavy lifting given that China is missile heavy.
Marines might be used to shore up anti-landing defenses if China decides to send boots on the ground. But ideally the US Navy prevents the landing entirely.
Said war taking place while we have 1980s-era Arleigh Burke Destroyers would be an attack while our Navy is at our weakest. Anything we can do to delay said war until after the DDG(X) upgrade is to our advantage.
> No offense, but who gives a shit about taiwan? Not americans. Only chinese people care about taiwan.
I'm American and I care? That's why I'm arguing on this point.
Current wargames suggest that USA will be willing to dedicate like 2 carrier strike groups for the defense of Taiwan. I'm not sure if it's enough (especially with the aging Arleigh Burke destroyers), but that's the level of commitment mostly assumed in this scenario if not more.
We have like 14 Carrier strike groups for a reason. We can spare two of them to this task, maybe more.
> If you're off, it could still crash and you could spend more money sustaining the position than you'd make.
And in Black Scholes this is called Theta Decay. In any form of short, there are maintenance costs, and maintenance costs roughly scale with the risk-free interest rate (usually assumed to be roughly the Federal Reserve's overnight lending rate)
Theta Decay is above-and-beyond the risk-free rate because you're also losing time-value. So you must always factor in the amount of time before a predicted crash: the longer it takes the more money you lose.
> So you must always factor in the amount of time before a predicted crash: the longer it takes the more money you lose.
I think the idea is, as a put buyer (market taker), this has already been baked into the option premium. The only "maintenance cost" in the sense of a cost that adds to an open position is from interest on margin loans.
There would be a maintenance cost from rolling the position into a later expiry, but I think the impression is that this is a precise single bet.
EDIT: You're spot on about opening a position being a sort of cost too, due to missing out on risk-free returns. This is especially important for hedging. Less so for a directional bet.
If you want to minimize loss of time value, you buy 2 year LEAPs, and then as their 1-year approaches, you sell the LEAPs and roll them back into 2-year LEAPs. Theta rapidly changes as you grow closer to expiration.
No one should be buying and holding just one option. Anyone who understands Black Scholes will be selling/buying and exchanging options as time goes on.
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Buying puts is a bull-bet on Volatility and bear-trade on the underlying stock, while losing Theta (largely based on expectation date. Longer means less Theta decay).
Selling calls is a bear bet on volatility, bear bet on underlying while gaining Theta in value each day.
And then there are the many combination trades that are available.
In any case, I don't think any sophisticated trader does the strategy you are assuming here. The sophisticated strategies involve selling and renewing your options as time moves forward / and or the stock price changes (to keep Delta withing appropriate levels).
Even if motors were literally weightless and mass-less, EVs would weigh more than ICE cars.
It's like making a more efficient CPU for your phone when all the power is eaten up by the cell-modem, screen and RAM. People wonder where the practical battery life gains are and theyre miniscule in practice
I'm fairly certain that any simple MCU with static clock (ie: supports 0.01 Hz clock, or 100seconds per clock and slower) will suffice as a human level bootstrap.
ATmega8 happens to satisfy those requirements. It's also not too hard to program microcontrollers that would support human level inputs.
In practice, the bootstrap device will be like a Windows7 laptop we've got squirreled away somewhere. It's probably cheaper to buy up a ton of used / old laptops that are sufficient for bootstrapping rather than trying to build methodologies that bootstrap from scratch.
Another way to look at it is GPT3.5 was $600,000,000,000 ago.
Today's AIs are better, but are they $600B better? Does it feel like that investment was sound? And if not, how much slower will future investments be?
Another way to look at $600B of improvement was whether or not they used the $600B to improve it.
This just smells like classic VC churn and burn. You are given it and have to spend it. And most of that money wasn't actually money, it was free infrastructure. Who knows the actual "cost" of the investments, but my uneducated brain (while trying to make a point) would say it is 20% of the stated value of the investments. And maybe GPT-5 + the other features OpenAI has enabled are $100B better.
Secure against what? You might be surprised at what a wench and a truck can pull / destroy. If that fails, there are shotguns and also explosives, jackhammers and the like.
There are always assumptions built into lock design. A simple lock is very secure if a fence is jumpable, most people will jump the fence rather than mess with a lock.
Even a complex lock will never be secure for national secrets (like nuclear missiles), you need to just assign guards. Locks exist but are basically a formality (IIRC, many tanks and airplanes are left unlocked because all the security posture is with the military and the lock itself is too much of a hassle for logistics).
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Fort Knox itself was designed to be safe from Nazi invasion. If the Nazis invaded New York City, they won't find any of the governments gold. The 'lock' in this case is the miles and miles of geography the Nazis would have to navigate before reaching Fort Knox.
"In 1933, the U.S. suspended gold convertibility and gold exports. In the following year, the U.S. dollar was devalued when the gold price was fixed at $35 per troy ounce. After the U.S. dollar devaluation, so much gold began to flow into the United States that the country’s gold reserves quadrupled within eight years. Notice that this is several years before the outbreak of World War II and predates a large trade surplus in the late 1940s. [...] In 1930, the U.S. controlled about 40% of the world’s gold reserves, but by 1950, the U.S. controlled nearly two-thirds of the world’s gold reserves."
The Moon directive was set by Donald Trump in 2017.
This is just the same deadline being pushed another year because of failures. Deadlines that get constantly pushed aren't deadlines at all.
As I recall, SpaceX and Artemis project was supposed to be Moon by 2024. At least originally. But then SpaceX blew up all the rockets (successfully testing them or something) and now we've wasted damn near a decade.
Any project even a quarter as complex as a manned lunar mission going to run into problems and failures and unforeseen complications (just ask anyone who's ever done any home renovation). Things go over budget, deadlines are missed, stuff doesn't work out the way you'd envisioned. This isn't always somebody's fault or the result of poor planning (though they can be).
Yeah, we've been there already, but it's been many decades and we haven't exactly kept all the tech and procedures up to date in the intervening years. And that first go-round itself missed it's intended deadline by about 7-8 years.
Why do you reject your own body? Your eyes are as much a part of you (and part of your brains network) as anything else connected to you.
Indeed, the entire field of neurobiology is about figuring out which hormones (and possibly which imbalances) cause different behaviors. Your various endocrine glands, very far away from your brain, might have more effects on your emotions than anything happening in the neural pathways.
Let's take the common watch circuit. Conceptually it's just like 5 components: crystal, a few capacitors, a NOT gate/transistor/amplifier. Introduce 180-degree phase shift at the 32.768k target frequency and bam, oscillator.
Except not really. A clock is expected to have a drift in the region of 100 ppm (or 0.001% error), or lose a second per day or so. That's the hard part, building something that accurate and consistent.
There are also startup specs, power specs (less power is harder. More power helps startup....) etc. etc.
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If you just need something to oscillate back and forth randomly, try making a noise generator lol, it will oscillate wildly at many frequencies, one of which might have been the frequency you wanted.
---------
The 555 timer is perhaps the easiest oscillator for a beginner if you are willing to put up with +/-10% drift. It's honestly good enough for far more applications than you might expect.
Even without the premade chip, a 555 timer is just 2x comparators (analog version of an If statement), a 33%/33%/33% voltage divider, and a capacitor. If Voltage > 66% input voltage, remove power from capacitor. If Voltage < 33% input voltage, add power to capacitor. Bam, you now have an oscillator that is accurate to the +/-10% capacitance values of your electronics kit.
Alas, modern circuits need to be faster and more accurate than the humble 555. But a beginner article about oscillators should be about the 555, rather than about opamp or transistor based oscillators.