Even if you can guarantee that your retirement income wouldn't be higher, you can't guarantee that your tax would be lower either. So I'd have both traditional and Roth IRA (e.g., 50/50)
A 50/50 traditional/roth allocation suggests you see it as even odds that your overall tax rate will be higher in retirement than your marginal rate today. That would require quite the rise in taxation rates, depending on exactly what your marginal rate is today. It is very easy currently to be married and make > $150k with a marginal rate of 25% and effective rate of < 15%. So, if you decided to draw exactly $150k each year in retirement, much more than you would be likely to need in any case, your effective rate would have to go up by over 10% to make it worth it to contribute to a Roth today. If you are drawing less than $150k, your effective rate on less income would have to go up 10%. This seems incredibly unlikely in our political environment, more like 80/20 or 90/10 odds.
> That would require quite the rise in taxation rates
Take a look at any of the Millenials working in any large-city downtown: they spend every single penny they earn, they have no savings; when they get older, either the State will let them starve to death, or taxes will be raised in order to take care of them.
I don't think the former is politically possible, so taxes will have to go up.
Meanwhile, the same spendthrifts are by-and-large refusing to have children early, which means that there will be fewer workers to pay those taxes.
That means that there will be tremendous political pressure to raid 401(k) plans and IRAs. I actually believe it's even odds whether Roths will end up taxed one way or another (perhaps with 'withdrawal fees' or some form of Social Security clawback or something): it'll be too much money for the State to leave alone.
While no one can predict the future, I tend to agree with your hypothesis.
The advantage of a 401K over the Roth is that since both can be raided, at least with the 401K your money is being taxed only on the way out. With the Roth you are being taxed on the way in for sure, and you run the risk of it being taxed on the way out as well.
Judging from the past my guess would be that we wont see something as obvious as a penalty or a fee. Instead what you may see is a more aggressive required minimum distribution schedule. Perhaps you could see the date of penalty free withdrawal pushed back from 59.5 to 65 or 67 years of age. Means testing of social security benefits has been mentioned before. If that gets put in place, and you fail the means test for social security, they will have effectively taxed you more your entire working life.
I agree that the risk of Roths being raided is quite high if we get to the point of taxes being raised that significantly to cause them to be valuable, so I don't really see a benefit personally of making significant contributions to one. I think raiding of 401ks is much less likely, as a lot more people have them and would be affected, and even if they do, you are still going to be better off than having contributed to a Roth unless they outright confiscate your balance, since you will have at least have avoided paying taxes in the past.
Or we could just continue doing what we are currently, and just keep piling up the debt :) No tax increase or Roth/401k raids needed.
> Take a look at any of the Millenials working in any large-city downtown: they spend every single penny they earn, they have no savings; when they get older, either the State will let them starve to death, or taxes will be raised in order to take care of them.
Don't forget the more politically expedient (and in my view most likely) choice: Print money to pay for it, causing inflation, which is essentially a silent tax on everyone with money.
Why should you compare using your overall rate in retirement? Is there some assumption here that most or all of your retirement income is coming from tax-advantaged accounts? That's probably the wrong calculation to make for high earners.
Depends on your definition of high earners, but most everyone that earns a living from W-2 income and is in the technology industry will be able to retire very easily by contributing as much as they can, preferably the max(currently $18,500) to their 401k and thereafter maximizing other tax-advantaged spaces such as Roth 401ks and IRAs over their working career. You would need to either be retiring exceptionally early, with less than 20 years of working life, or retire expecting to draw more than you earned in salary, to require after-tax investments to retire. Even if you do require after-tax investments, the preponderance of your income in retirement will most likely still come from those tax advantaged spaces, assuming you are a rational actor and wish to pay as little tax as possible. The only situation I can see where this doesn't apply is when you don't earn the majority of your income from W-2 wages and instead see it as long-term capital gains, in which case almost none of the advice in this entire comment thread is applicable and you should seek a fiduciary advisor.
> retiring exceptionally early, with less than 20 years of working life
This is an assumption I'm working under, but I've thought about it for a more normal case as well.
Still, the usual advice for saving for a normal retirement is 10%-15%, and you only have to break $185k before a 401(k) doesn't cover even the low end of that.
Well you have to consider matching numbers in that as well. My employer contributes 10%, which is on the high end of normal, but not that abnormal for most highly paid positions. It is easy to contribute 20%+ making over the 33% bracket and not even touch 401k total contribution limits that way(total limit is currently $53k). If you are making that much and your employer is not contributing a lot to your 401k it is definitely worth your while economically to convince them to do so(and when you are making that much you will have the clout to make them do so). Remember, the whole point of 401(k) plans initially was as a backdoor way to compensate high earners.
Also, if you're making that much, even if you want to retire early, the normal % rules of thumb don't necessarily apply, assuming you want to live a normal middle-class life in retirement. You should run the numbers on http://firecalc.com, you will find if you live frugally making that much and contribute the max you can easily retire in under 20 years with a >90% chance of success. If you want to retire to the high life you will either have to contribute more than normal(and invest well/be lucky) or work longer, no matter your income.
Edit: I will say that there is a potentially significant disadvantage, especially for high earners, in having a lot of your net worth tied up in a 401k. That is required minimum distributions, essentially forcing you to take out a certain percentage of your account balance when you reach certain age thresholds. You can somewhat easily get around this by rolling over into a Roth IRA(backdoor Roth), but that could offset many of the tax advantages of the 401k in the first place if you have significant traditional IRA holdings[1]. This is mostly deleterious if you are planning on bequeathing an estate in a tax-advantaged way, but you may be able to get around it with a irrevocable trust. Consult a fiduciary, this is not financial advice.
